No Upturn In European Advertising, Says ABN AMRO

In a report published this morning, ABN AMRO released downgraded advertising forecasts for the European and Global markets saying that no recovery was yet evident.
European Advertising Growth Forecasts (% change) | ||
Q3 Forecast | Q3 Actual | |
France | -4.7 | -6.3 |
Germany | -9.8 | -6.0 |
Italy | -3.9 | -8.8 |
UK | -8.5 | -9.5 |
Total | -7.6 | -7.5 |
Source: ABN AMRO, December 2001 |
ABN has now revised down its 2002 ad forecasts for Europe in light of indications in October. Although Italy and France performed well, ABN says: “The robust markets have been strong mainly because of one-off factors, such as strong finance spending in Italy and media and finance in France. In our view this is not an indication of an underlying improvement in the advertising market.”
European Advertising Growth Forecasts (% change) | ||
2001 | 2002 | |
France | -3.8 | -2.2 |
Germany | -8.3 | -0.4 |
Italy | -5.0 | -0.2 |
UK | -5.4 | -1.7 |
Total | -6.0 | -1.1 |
Source: ABN AMRO, December 2001 |
ABN forecasts that magazines will be the best performing media next year closely followed by outdoor although forecast growth is minimal at 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. TV is likely to continue to suffer along with radio and newspapers.
Major Market Forecasts For 2002 By Media (% growth) | |||||||
UK | France | Italy | Germany | Spain | Netherlands | Europe | |
Television | -1.8 | -3.2 | -2.0 | -2.3 | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.2 |
Radio | -0.1 | -3.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -4.0 | -1.8 | -1.6 |
Magazines | 0.0 | -2.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | -2.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
Newspapers | -3.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -3.0 | 0.0 | -1.3 |
Outdoor | 2.0 | -2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
Total | -1.7 | -2.2 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -2.5 | 0.2 | -1.1 |
Source: ABN AMRO, December, 2001 |