No Upturn In European Advertising, Says ABN AMRO

Q3 advertising growth in Europe fell slightly more than ABN was expecting, 7.6% against ABN’s forecast of 7.5%. This was largely due to a greater than anticipated drop in the German market, redressed slightly by a better-than-expected performance by France and Italy. The UK fell broadly in line with expectations, slightly ahead of the European average.

European Advertising Growth Forecasts (% change)
	Q3 Forecast	Q3 Actual
France	-4.7	-6.3
Germany	-9.8	-6.0
Italy	-3.9	-8.8
UK	-8.5	-9.5
Total	-7.6	-7.5
Source: ABN AMRO, December 2001

ABN has now revised down its 2002 ad forecasts for Europe in light of indications in October. Although Italy and France performed well, ABN says: “The robust markets have been strong mainly because of one-off factors, such as strong finance spending in Italy and media and finance in France. In our view this is not an indication of an underlying improvement in the advertising market.”

European Advertising Growth Forecasts (% change)
	2001	2002
France	-3.8	-2.2
Germany	-8.3	-0.4
Italy	-5.0	-0.2
UK	-5.4	-1.7
Total	-6.0	-1.1
Source: ABN AMRO, December 2001

ABN forecasts that magazines will be the best performing media next year closely followed by outdoor although forecast growth is minimal at 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. TV is likely to continue to suffer along with radio and newspapers.

Major Market Forecasts For 2002 By Media (% growth)
	UK	France	Italy	Germany	Spain	Netherlands	Europe
Television	-1.8	-3.2	-2.0	-2.3	-2.0	-2.0	-2.2
Radio	-0.1	-3.0	0.0	-1.0	-4.0	-1.8	-1.6
Magazines	0.0	-2.0	4.0	1.0	-2.0	2.0	0.4
Newspapers	-3.0	-1.0	0.0	-0.2	-3.0	0.0	-1.3
Outdoor	2.0	-2.0	5.0	0.0	-2.0	2.0	0.1
Total	-1.7	-2.2	-0.2	-0.4	-2.5	0.2	-1.1
Source: ABN AMRO, December, 2001