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Online Future Will Mirror Cable TV, Says Jupiter

Online Future Will Mirror Cable TV, Says Jupiter

Jupiter Media Metrix yesterday forecast that revenues from paid online content will grow to $5.8 billion by 2006, up from $1.4 billion in 2002. According to Jupiter revenues for general content will rise from $700 million in 2001 to $2.3 billion in 2006 whilst revenues from online games and digital music will total $1.8 billion and $1.7 billion respectively by 2006. This is an increase from the $260 million from games and $30 million from music derived in 2001.

“While there is money to be made in the online content business, Jupiter’s latest survey and market forecast numbers indicate that the mass market still largely shuns anything that smells like a subscription online,” said David Card, Jupiter vice president.

“However, in the near term, media companies will create subscription services via packaging, exclusivity and added interactive features. Over time, they must use the gradual U.S. broadband transition to re-set industry ground rules and re-condition consumer expectations.”

In a March 2002 consumer survey, Jupiter found that almost three quarters of online adults (70%) said they cannot understand why anyone would pay for content online. Of those that indicated they would pay, the survey found that 29% would most likely pay their ISP.

The same Jupiter survey found that 42% of online adults are resigned to paying for online content at some point yet despite this minority acceptance, Jupiter analysts believe that the likelihood that consumers will pay for online content now is greater than it was a couple of years ago when well-funded internet start ups were ten a penny.

“The online future is beginning to look a lot like cable TV. Established portals will emerge as networks that aggregate premium content and services in packages – both those that portals determine and those that users customise. This will pave the way for content providers to resell premium content through numerous partners,” Card concluded.

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