PVR Adoption To Slow After 2010
The increasing penetration of personal video recorders (PVRs) is expected to slow after 2010, with the device becoming a “add-on to the TV experience rather than a substitute for it”, according to the latest forecasts from Magna Global USA.
Brian Weiser, vice president and director of industry analysis of Magna Global USA, claimed that the only way for PVR manufacturers to increase adoption would be through cutting service costs.
Weiser said: “The only way PVRs should be able to get beyond that 30% level is to offer services for free, but even then, one has to question how frequently the service would be used after users have had the service for an extended period of time.”
According to Magna, there were 8.3 million PVR users in the US at the end of the second quarter of 2005, forecast to rise by 2.9 million by the end of the year to 11.2 million.
Weiser asserted that potentially faster growth could come from “network PVR technology”, where cable operators could store programming and then forward it to consumers. According to the research director, this may be a cheaper way as opposed to making consumers pay for a PVR box and monthly service.
Despite Magna’s predictions, the advertising industry is gearing up to combat the increasing penetration of PVRs and the affect this may have on advert consumption, with experts concerned that the technology will cut commercial impacts.
Speaking at the Edinburgh TV Festival, Dr Robert Pepper, senior managing director of global advanced technology policy at Cisco Systems, claimed that PVRs are significantly changing the way in which people watch television, with 5% of current TV viewing in the US time-shifted, predicted to rise to 10% by the end of next year and 25% by 2008 (see Quarter Of US Consumers Forecast To Time-Shift By 2008).
Previous industry opinion was that PVRs would cause a severe threat to advertisers, with viewers using the devices to skip through a large proportion of adverts. Recent research from Accenture predicts that nearly 10% of all television commercials will be skipped by 2009 due to the fast forwarding technology (see US Advertisers To Lose 10% Of Commercial Impacts By 2009).
However, advertisers are being sent mixed signals over the dangers of PVR uptake. US studies from Frank N.Magid Associates claim that despite advertisers’ fears of TV adverts being skipped with the new technology, 55% of PVR users stop to watch adverts that catch their eye (see Strong Growth For Entertainment Industry Led By Online Games).
New research from ESPN agrees with this, claiming that the majority of PVR households in the US are relatively new to the technology, with the devices not yet affecting their television viewing behaviour (see PVRs Not Yet Affecting TV Viewing Behaviour).