Global shipments of games consoles will hit 41.9 million units in 2002, an increase of 84% year on year, according to new forecasts from Strategy Analytics.
Sony’s PlayStation 2 (PS2) console is expected to account for 63% of sales, followed by Nintendo’s GameCube with 21% and Microsoft’s XBox with 16%. Cumulatively, the PS2 will account for 72% of global shipments of the three platforms by the end of this year, with the GameCube taking 16% and XBox just 12%.
Strategy Analytics says that the games console market is entering a critical three-month period which could determine success or failure for both GameCube and XBox.
| Global Games Console Market Forecast |
| |
|
|
| |
2002 Shipment Forecast |
Cumulative Shipments |
| Sony PS2 |
26.3 |
50.0 |
| Nintendo GameCube |
8.8 |
10.8 |
| Microsoft XBox |
6.8 |
8.2 |
| TOTAL |
41.9 |
69.0 |
| Source: Strategy Analytics, October 2002 |
“Several factors lead to the conclusion that Nintendo will probably exit the console market since the survival threshold for any game platform is now in the region of 15-20 million systems deployed. This continues to rise as games development costs increase. Furthermore, in spite of XboxÂ’s slow start, Microsoft will continue to commit the funds necessary to evolve their Xbox platform into a full-fledged broadband home entertainment system,” says the report.
“This is a race for second place,” says David Mercer, vice president, Broadband Practice at Strategy Analytics. “The question now is whether the market can sustain three players in the longer term.”
