TNS Forecasts US Adspend To Rise By 5.4% In 2006

TNS projects adspend to grow at a slower rate in the first half of the year, rising by 5%, versus the stronger 5.7% expected in the second half of 2006. The forecaster expects the final quarter of 2006 to enjoy the largest growth, predicting an increase of 6.4% over Q4 of 2005.

Unlike other industry forecasts, TNS has estimated a relatively moderate rate of growth for online adspend during 2006, expecting the media to rise at 9.1%. However, the media body pointed out that its internet predictions exclude paid search, which is one of the fastest growing segments of online advertising.

According to Pipar Jaffray, paid search is expected to generate more than $14 billion globally in 2006, enjoying an increase of 41% from the estimated $10 billion that it made in 2005 (see Paid Search To Reach $14 Billion Worldwide In 2006).

TNS claims that cable network TV ranks third in growth, predicted to rise by 8.4% in 2006, while outdoor will enjoy an increase of 7.2%.

The outlook for 2006 is more optimistic than 2005, reflecting advertising expenditure related to the 2006 Winter Olympics and the US mid-term elections.

Steven Fredericks, TNS president and chief executive officer noted that “steady economic growth in 2006 will boost CEO confidence, giving a positive lift to US ad spending.”

TNS’s outlook is less optimistic than Universal McCann, with estimates released in December projecting total US adspend to rise by 5.8% in 2006, with the internet forecast to be the fastest growing medium, up by 10% for the year (see McCann Expects US 2005 Adspend To Rise By 4.6%).

2006 Growth Estimates By Media
	% Change vs 2005
Hispanic Network Television	10.4
Internet	9.1
Cable Network Television	8.4
Outdoor	7.2
Spot TV	7
Syndication Television	4.8
Network Television	4.5
Newspapers	4.3
Consumer & Sunday Magazines	4
Radio	3.6
B2B Magazines	1
Source: TNS Media Intelligence, January 2006