UK Ad Forecasts From ZenithOptimedia

The figures include spend on the major media of newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor and the internet. On this basis, total UK spend is expected to be £10.4 billion this year, rising to £10.7 billion in 2004 and £11.0 billion in 2005.

UK Advertising Spend Forecasts
	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
Spend (US$m)	15,888	15,889	16,067	16,538	17,074
Spend (£m)	10,250	10,251	10,366	10,670	11,016
Source: ZenithOptimedia, April 2003

UK Advertising Growth Forecasts
	2002	2003	2004	2005
Current prices	0.0	1.1	2.9	3.2
Constant prices	-2.1	-1.4	0.4	0.7
Source: ZenithOptimedia, April 2003

Television spend rose by 4.5% last year. However, following record levels of commercial viewing and reallocation of budgets from the large and most expensive channels to smaller, cheaper ones, the 2003 market is now deflating to 1.0% growth in current prices (or -1.6% in constant prices).

In the longer-term, viewer migration to multi-channel services should help the TV ad industry, as the ad breaks are typically longer on these platforms. As a result, TV is expected to start regaining advertising share and show real growth in 2004.

In the press sector, 2003 is expected to show little growth, with consumer magazines already suffering as advertisers commit funds late into the market. Travel and motors kept the market buoyant in recent months but have weakened, says the report.

ZenithOptimedia expects outdoor, radio and cinema to post real growth in 2003 on strength in particular categories (notably entertainment, cosmetics and travel in outdoor; FMCG, London congestion charge, telephone number enquiry deregulation in radio), with cinema in particular benefiting from record admissions and tactical advertising expenditure, especially with war-related cancellations.