UK Cable, Satellite & DTT Penetration Forecasts From Merrill Lynch – February 2002
The latest Merrill Lynch UK television industry forecasts of growth and subscribers by multiple platforms are shown below.
Further analysis of these figures will follow shortly in the Forecasts section of MediaTel Insight. The previous set of forecasts from Merrill Lynch can be found here.
| Merrill Lynch Cable, Satellite & DTT Penetration Forecasts In UK | ||||||||||||||
| Data (in 000s) | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| No. UK TV Households | 23,710.00 | 23,915.00 | 24,102 | 24,283 | 24,465 | 24,648 | 24,833 | 25,019 | 25,207 | 25,396 | 25,587 | 25,779 | 25,972 | 26,167 |
| Total UK DTH & Cable & DTT Subscribers | 6,027.00 | 6,389.00 | 7,809 | 9,443 | 10,472 | 11,843 | 13,013 | 14,099 | 15,193 | 16,181 | 17,093 | 17,963 | 18,629 | 19,299 |
| Total Digital Pay TV Subscribers | 244 | 2,737 | 6,521 | 8,861 | 11,261 | 13,002 | 14,087 | 15,180 | 16,181 | 17,093 | 17,963 | 18,629 | 19,299 | |
| Total Digital TV Homes | 244 | 2,737 | 6,546 | 8,936 | 11,486 | 13,577 | 15,262 | 17,055 | 18,806 | 20,468 | 21,938 | 23,104 | 24,274 | |
| Total Digital non Pay TV Homes | 25 | 75 | 225 | 575 | 1,175 | 1,875 | 2,625 | 3,375 | 3,975 | 4,475 | 4,975 | |||
| BSkyB Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 14.7 | 14 | 16 | 20.2 | 22.6 | 25.2 | 26.8 | 27.7 | 28.1 | 28.5 | 28.7 | 29 | 29.2 | 29.3 |
| Broadband Cable Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 10 | 11.8 | 13.5 | 14.7 | 15.2 | 16.8 | 18.2 | 19.6 | 21 | 22.2 | 23.4 | 24.6 | 25.8 | 27.1 |
| ITV Digital Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 0.1 | 2.2 | 4 | 5 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 10 | 10.3 | |
| DSL Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.1 | |||
| Total DTH,B.Cable,ITV Digital & DSL Pen. Of UK % HHs | 24.7 | 25.9 | 31.7 | 38.9 | 42.8 | 48 | 52.4 | 56.4 | 60.3 | 63.7 | 66.8 | 69.7 | 71.7 | 73.8 |
| DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) Subscribers | 9 | 15 | 50 | 168 | 410 | 779 | 1,111 | 1,402 | 1,651 | 1,753 | 1,858 | |||
| Total Cable (in 000s) | 2,541.00 | 3,012.00 | 3,422 | 3,560 | 3,712 | 4,129 | 4,515 | 4,907 | 5,296 | 5,630 | 5,979 | 6,338 | 6,708 | 7,090 |
| Broadband Homes Passed | 10,694.00 | 11,904.00 | 12,650 | 13,349 | 13,351 | 13,355 | 13,359 | 13,363 | 13,367 | 13,370 | 13,374 | 13,377 | 13,381 | 13,385 |
| Broadband Cable % Built Out | 45.1 | 49.8 | 52.5 | 55 | 54.6 | 54.2 | 53.8 | 53.4 | 53 | 52.6 | 52.3 | 51.9 | 51.9 | 51.2 |
| Broadband Cable Penetration % | 22.2 | 23.7 | 23.7 | 26.7 | 27.7 | 28.5 | 29.3 | 30.1 | 30.9 | 31.7 | 32.5 | 33.3 | 33.5 | 33.7 |
| BSkyB Analogue | 3,486.00 | 3,133.00 | 1,796 | 233 | ||||||||||
| BSkyB Digital | 225 | 2,064 | 4,667 | 5,519 | 6,207 | 6,662 | 6,928 | 7,085 | 7,227 | 7,354 | 7,470 | 7,574 | 7,668 | |
| DTT (Digital Terrestrial TV) Subscribers | 19 | 527 | 975 | 1,227 | 1,458 | 1,668 | 1,855 | 2,033 | 2,213 | 2,213 | 2,504 | 2,593 | 2,683 | |
| BSkyB Residential DTH | 3,486.00 | 3,358.00 | 3,860 | 4,899 | 5,519 | 6,207 | 6,662 | 6,928 | 7,085 | 7,227 | 7,354 | 7,470 | 7,574 | 7,668 |
| UK Broadband Cable Subscribers | 2,374.00 | 2,826.00 | 3,245 | 3,559 | 3,712 | 4,129 | 4,515 | 4,907 | 5,296 | 5,630 | 5,979 | 6,338 | 6,708 | 7,090 |
| UK Narrowband Cable Subscribers | 81 | 89 | 27 | |||||||||||
| Cable Digital | 146 | 870 | 2,101 | 3,546 | 4,504 | 4,894 | 5,283 | 5,630 | 5,979 | 6,338 | 6,708 | 7,090 | ||
| Cable Analogue | 2,374.00 | 2,826.00 | 3,099 | 2,689 | 1,611 | 583 | 11 | 12 | 13 | |||||
| SMATV | 86 | 97 | 150 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| % of Pay TV Subs that are Digital | 3.8 | 35.1 | 69 | 84.6 | 95.1 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| % of TV Homes that are Digital | 1 | 11.4 | 27 | 36.5 | 46.6 | 54.7 | 61 | 67.7 | 74.1 | 80 | 85.1 | 89 | 92.8 | |
| BSkyB Res DTH (Growth) | 3.9 | -3.7 | 14.9 | 26.9 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 4 | 2.3 | 2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Broadband Cable (Growth) | 26.7 | 19.1 | 14.8 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| ITV Digital TV (Growth) | 85 | 25.8 | 18.8 | 14.4 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |||
| DSL (Growth) | 65 | 236 | 237.5 | 143.5 | 90.3 | 42.5 | 26.2 | 17.8 | 6.2 | 6 | ||||
| DTH+Broadband Cable+DTT + DSL (Growth) | 12.8 | 6 | 22.2 | 20.9 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| Source: Merrill Lynch, January 2002 | ||||||||||||||