UK TV ad spend is expected to fall by 6% this year and 3% in 2009, before seeing growth of 2% in 2010 and 1% in 2011, according to ZenithOptimedia.
Ad revenues for the main UK terrestrial channels will decline 7% in 2009, added the agency.
Zenith’s UK Television Forecasts to 2012 predicts that the digital spin-off channels of ITV1, Channel 4 and Five will increase revenues by 10%, but this will not be enough to compensate. The report expects total revenues to these broadcasters to fall 4% by 2009.
The main terrestrial channels are weighing down the market, said Zenith, adding that cheaper digital channels will increase their ad revenues by 6% in 2009, and grow by an average of 8% a year to 2012.
The price of television advertising has fallen by nearly a third over the course of this decade, it added; a 30 second spot, at £4.81 per thousand adults, costs the same as it did in 1994 and is 29% cheaper than in the peak year of 2000.
In October, ZenithOptimedia downgraded its UK ad forecast for this year and 2009, with significant growth expected to return in 2010 (see UK Adspend Forecast Downgraded By ZenithOptimedia).
As the worldwide financial crisis hits the sector, total UK ad spend is forecast to fall 2.1% this year, with an increase of 1.5% expected in 2009, down from Zenith’s prediction of 5.6% growth made in June.
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