US Ad Growth Forecasts By Media: Zenith Versus Myers
Zenith Media downgraded its global advertising forecasts at the end of last week, with a particularly bearish outlook for the coming months (see Forecasts). Today Myers Reports set out its US growth forecasts by media alongside Zenith’s, with both groups predicting that the US advertising recession could be more severe and prolonged than had first been anticipated.
For 2002 and 2003, Myers’ are broadly more pessimistic than Zenith’s; for 2001, on the other hand, Zenith’s are more gloomy than Myers’ in all but the television sector. However, Myers recently published a set of ‘worse case scenario’ figures, which are more in line with Zenith’s forecasts here.
| Advertising growth forecasts, Zenith and Myers Comparisons | ||||||||||||
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | ||||||||||
| Zenith | Myers | Zenith | Myers | Zenith | Myers | |||||||
| $m | Growth (%) | $m | Growth (%) | $m | Growth (%) | $m | Growth (%) | $m | Growth (%) | $m | Growth (%) | |
| Total* | 144,985 | -3.6 | 147,594 | -2.3 | 145,920 | 0.6 | 147,298 | -0.2 | 150,209 | 2.9 | 148,112 | 0.6 |
| Newspapers | 46,752 | -4.0 | 49,368 | 2.0 | 46,284 | -1.0 | 49,862 | 1.0 | 47,210 | 2.0 | 49,363 | -1.0 |
| Magazines | 16,815 | -5.0 | 17,299 | -3.0 | 16,647 | -1.0 | 16,780 | -3.0 | 16,980 | 2.0 | 17,116 | 2.0 |
| TV** | 50,813 | -2.8 | 56,270 | -5.1 | 51,641 | 1.6 | 56,186 | -0.2 | 53,235 | 3.1 | 56,750 | 1.0 |
| Radio | 19,193 | -7.8 | 17,752 | -7.0 | 19,030 | -0.8 | 17,042 | -4.0 | 19,250 | 1.2 | 16,701 | -2.0 |
| Outdoor | 4,812 | -2.0 | 2,174 | 1.0 | 4,860 | 1.0 | 2,131 | -2.0 | 4,957 | 2.0 | 2,088 | -2.0 |
| Internet | 6,600 | 10.0 | 4,730 | 10.0 | 7,458 | 13.0 | 5,298 | 12.0 | 8,577 | 15.0 | 6,092 | 15.0 |
| Source: Zenith Media, Myers Mediaenomics | ||||||||||||
* As Zenith’s figures do not include the same ‘Yellow Pages’ and ‘Other’ categories as Myers Reports, those categories are not included in the Myers Total figures provided here. ** Myers’ Television figures are aggregates of the six TV categories in Myers’ original projections.
Country by country comparisons between Zenith’s and ABN Amro’s forecasts can be found here.