US Ad Spend Will Drop By 2% This Year, Says CMR
CMR, the strategic advertising and marketing arm of Taylor Nelson Sofres, has released its mid-year forecasts for US ad spend in 2001. In June, figures from CMR revealed that Q1 ad spend had dropped by 5.2% on the previous year (see Forecasts) and this decline is reflected in the outlook for 2001.
| 2000 vs 2001 First Quarter Ad Spending | |||
| Media | Jan-Mar 2001 (m) | Jan-Mar 2000(m) | % Change |
| Magazines | $3,626.3 | $3,611.9 | 0.40% |
| Sunday Magazines | $261.1 | $257.4 | 1.40% |
| Network TV | $5192.1 | $5317.8 | -2.20% |
| Network Radio | $182.5 | $223.5 | -18.40% |
| Syndication-National | $811.2 | $766.7 | 5.50% |
| Outdoor | $568.4 | $542.3 | 4.60% |
| National Newspapers | $801.1 | $968.7 | -17.30% |
| Cable TV | $2,463.3 | $2,300.4 | 6.60% |
| Sunday Newspapers | $2,228.0 | $2,516.2 | -11.40% |
| Daily Newspapers | $2,016.5 | $2,156.4 | -6.50% |
| Spot TV | $3,539.3 | $4,166.0 | -15.00% |
| National Spot Radio | $433.3 | $571.1 | -24.10% |
| Source: CMR | |||
Looking to the future, CMR forecasts that growth for 2001 will drop by 2% on the previous year although, despite the gloomy outlook, forecasts a two year growth trend of 11.2% from 1999-2001.
The sharp declines seen in H1 spending by the major advertisers must be seen at least in part as seasonal, ignoring for a moment last years anomalous boom, following this pattern Q4 should bring growth in spending allowing for a market recovery by the end of 2001.
“After a look at the first quarter ad-spending numbers, which were down 5.2% across all media, as well as taking into account the current economic outlook, it is clear that 2001 will not be the stellar advertising year that we all experienced in 2000,” said David Peeler, president and CEO of CMR. “Nevertheless, we must keep in mind that we are coming off a year (2000) in which there was both a presidential election and an Olympics, two factors that have always dramatically increased ad spending. Overall, the advertising industry is still ahead of where it was in 1999.”
“While the continuing fallout from the decline of the dot.coms is a major factor in our forecast, the slowdown in ad spending cannot be entirely focused on the dot.com crash,” Peeler continued. “Most of the major media that we monitor is down this year, primarily due to ad budget reductions in certain key advertising segments, such as automotive and telecommunications.”
Source: CMR