The overriding picture is of a mixed performance between regions, with some growth emerging in the US, stronger performances in most of Asia-Pacific and continued weakness in Europe. Aegis says that the US began to improve from mid last year onwards, whilst Europe stabilised as compared to a weak second half the year before.
Moving into 2003, the US television upfronts commitments strengthened the outlook (see US Upfronts Hit Record $9bn-Plus Autumn Sales), whilst Europe has remained disappointing. Aegis expects that Europe will end this year with little or no growth. In Asia-Pacific, SARS affected the second quarter, but outside of Japan, the region has returned to solid growth.
Overall, the global advertising market showed a slight recovery in the first six months of 2003. “While signs from the US TV market are encouraging, other forms of US media are showing little improvement. The European market has been more disappointing with gains in some markets offset by weakness in others,” it said.
While H2 2003 may see slightly better market conditions, it is likely that the full-year will show only a slight recovery. However, Aegis’ market predictions point to an increased rate of adspend growth in 2004.
The latest European advertising growth forecasts from ZenithOptimedia put 2003 up just 1.7%, rising to 4.1% in 2004. Merrill Lynch expects growth to be just 0.5% this year, as shown below.
A consensus of global ad growth forecasts, compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT, put 2003 at 3.2%, rising to 4.8% in 2004. Within this, the US is expected to be the strongest region.
| GLOBAL AND REGIONAL ADVERTISING FORECASTS |
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| |
US |
Europe |
Global |
Asia-Pacific |
| |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
| Merrill Lynch (07/03) |
2.5 |
3.2 |
5.7 |
-2.2 |
0.5 |
– |
1.4 |
2.0 |
4.9 |
– |
1.0 |
– |
| Universal McCann (06/03) |
2.4 |
4.6 |
6.5 |
– |
– |
– |
2.2 |
4.3 |
5.6 |
– |
– |
– |
| WARC (12/02) |
1.4 |
4.0 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
| ABN AMRO (11/02) |
0.5 |
2.2 |
3.4 |
-1.7 |
2.0 |
3.4 |
-0.4 |
2.2 |
3.9 |
1.4 |
3.5 |
5.1 |
| ZenithOptimedia (06/03) |
1.9 |
2.7 |
4.7 |
-0.3 |
1.7 |
4.1 |
0.9 |
2.9 |
4.7 |
1.0 |
4.1 |
4.8 |
| Initiative Media (01/03) |
– |
3.5 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
0.9 |
4.5 |
– |
– |
– |
– |
| Average |
1.7 |
3.4 |
5.1 |
-1.4 |
1.4 |
3.8 |
1.0 |
3.2 |
4.8 |
1.2 |
2.9 |
5.0 |
| Source: As above, compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT |
For the latest global and regional advertising growth forecasts, compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT, click here.
