US Interactive TV Revenues Will Double Annually, Show Myers Forecasts
US interactive television (iTV) revenues will nearly double annually for the next several years, as broadband deployments accelerate and as consumers embrace video-on-demand and simultaneous computer/television usage. These are the views of Jack Myers Report, which has today published its latest iTV revenues forecasts for the US.
“While this growth may appear to be bullish considering the current soft marketplace and slow growth for interactive media, Myers iTV projections have been the most conservative among major forecasters. A report issued this week by data aggregator eMarketer compares Myers’ forecast for 2005 iTV advertising revenues of $408 million to Forrester’s $2.6 billion, Jupiter’s $4.5 billion and ABN Amro’s $8.3 billion. Jupiter and Forrester have consistently overstated their iTV spending forecasts,” says Myers.
| US Interactive Television Revenues ($ millions) | ||||||
| iTV Advertising (One screen) | iTV Advertising (Two screen) | EPG/IPG Advertising | Television Commerce* | ITV Subscription** | Total | |
| 1999 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 120 | 132 |
| 2000 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 280 | 307 |
| 2001 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 12 | 340 | 391 |
| 2002 | 8 | 24 | 28 | 18 | 530 | 608 |
| 2003 | 17 | 50 | 36 | 30 | 950 | 1,083 |
| 2004 | 32 | 110 | 64 | 80 | 2,150 | 2,436 |
| 2005 | 60 | 260 | 98 | 120 | 4,000 | 4,538 |
| 2006 | 100 | 420 | 183 | 260 | 6,800 | 7,763 |
| 2007 | 230 | 550 | 304 | 400 | 9,200 | 10,684 |
| 2008 | 450 | 730 | 600 | 800 | 14,000 | 16,500 |
| 2009 | 700 | 960 | 900 | 1,400 | 18,000 | 21,960 |
| 2010 | 1,000 | 1,480 | 1,400 | 2,100 | 25,000 | 30,980 |
| * Does not include telephone or Internet commerce | ||||||
| ** Includes video on demand. | ||||||
| Source: Jack Myers Report, March 2002 | ||||||
Most iTV revenue growth will occur after cable television operators roll-out next generation set-top boxes (STBs) that incorporate personal video recorder and interactive capabilities, says the report. As set-top devices that have only limited capacity are currently being distributed, Myers projects that the next generation STBs will not gain broad market acceptance until 2006-2007.
Electronic programme guides (EPG) and and interactive programme guides (IPG) will also provide a strong advertising revenue stream, according to Myers.
Myers acknowledges that its forecasts are “dramatically less than the overly optimistic projections that several analysts developed during the economic balloon ride of 1999 and 2000.” It says that the forecasts shown here recognise the relatively slow evolution of television technology and the limited applications that will enable commerce.