US Newspaper Revenue To Grow 4.0% In 2003, Says Merrill Lynch
Fourth quarter advertising revenue for US newspapers will grow by 3.5%, up from the 1.0% rise in Q3, according to analysts at Merrill Lynch. Some of this improvement will be due to easier comparisons, but nevertheless, a muted ad recovery is in place, reckons the broker.
The newspaper sector ended a six consecutive quarter run of declining revenues in Q3 2002, posting a very modest 1.0% gain, according to figures from the Newspaper Association of Amercica (NAA) (see US Newspapers Emerge From Six Quarters Of Revenue Decline In Q3). National spend has shown the strongest growth and this is likely to continue in 2003.
For the full year 2003, Merrill is predicting a 4.0% rise in revenues, in line with its overall US ad growth forecast of 4.0% (see Merrill Lynch Sees ‘Cautious Optimism’ For 2003 US Ad Outlook). This follows an expected 0.7% decline in FY 2002.
By way of comparison, the NAA is forecasting that 2003 revenues will grow 3.2% in a conservative estimate (considered most likely) or 6.1% in an optimistic estimate (see NAA Predicts Revenue Growth Momentum For US Newspapers).