US radio advertising revenues are expected to rise by 3.0%-4.0% in Q2 2002 and by 8.0%-10.0% in Q3, boosted by comparisons with the post 11 September period of last year, according to analysts at Merrill Lynch.
The broker says that July radio spend started strongly, with the beginning of the month showing high single-digit growth, with the latter half of the month slowing to low single-digit growth. A similar pattern occurred in May and June. Q1 revenue was down by 1.0%; April rose by 4.0%; May by 3.0% and June was up 1.0%-3.0%, according to the latest estimates.
Q3 boost from 11 September fallout In the third quarter, the comparison with the fall in advertising activity last year after 11 September is likely to boost radio’s figures by around 5.0%, according to analysts. This means that a 3.0%-5.0% underlying growth will equate to a 8.0%-10.0% topline sales growth for Q3; Q2 is expected to finish up 3.0%-4.0%.
For the full year 2002, Merrill Lynch forecasts US radio advertising growth of 4.0%-5.5%. The survey also found that spend has slowed in big markets and that national advertising remains stronger than local – the opposite of the current radio trading environment in the UK.
Television Television station ad revenues are beginning to accelerate, according to the report. Station revenue is estimated to be up by 4.0%-6.0% in Q2, with June and July showing growth of 10.0%-15.0%. Very early indications for August show growth of up to 15.0%.
Again, 11 September will boost Q3 revenues, with growth of around 15.0% expected by Merrill Lynch.
