Radio revenues across the US remained weak during the final quarter of 2003, but the industry is showing signs of rejuvenation for 2004.
Merrill Lynch predicts that US radio revenue growth during the fourth quarter will range from an increase of 1% to a decline of 2% year on year, compounded by weak local advertising and a write-off of the final quarter of 2003 by some clients. The analyst believes that some advertisers delayed campaigns until 2004 to drive sales on a “clean slate.”
And the signs are looking positive for 2004 when the Olympics and political spending around the presidential elections will boost ad markets overall.
A firming of rates will also benefit radio, fuelling growth of 8.1% for the full year. Merrill Lynch recently revised its 2003 growth forecasts from 1.6% to 1.5% following disappointing figures during November.
It said that radio recovery in 2004 will be “back-end loaded” as local advertisers await signs that the recovery has returned and demand rises ahead of the presidential election in November (see 2004 Radio Recovery To Be ‘Back-End Loaded’, Says Merrill Lynch).
UK radio revenues are also forecast to improve during 2004. Mediaedge:cia predicted a 7% increase in radio advertising this year, compared to a growth of 4% last year (see Forecasts).
| US Quarterly Radio Revenue Growth (Dollars in Millions) |
| |
|
|
| |
2004 |
2003 |
| |
|
|
| Jan |
2% |
6% |
| Feb |
3% |
7% |
| Mar |
9% |
-2% |
| 1st Quarter |
5% |
4% |
| |
|
|
| Apr |
7% |
1% |
| May |
7% |
0% |
| Jun |
7% |
4% |
| 2nd Quarter |
7% |
2% |
| |
|
|
| Jul |
4% |
3% |
| Aug |
10% |
0% |
| Sep |
11% |
4% |
| 3rd Quarter |
8% |
2% |
| |
|
|
| Oct |
11% |
-1% |
| Nov |
14% |
-4% |
| Dec |
9% |
2% |
| 4th Quarter |
11% |
-1% |
| |
|
|
| Full Year |
8% |
2% |
| |
|
|
| Source: RAB and Merrill Lynch, January 2004 |
