Revenue in the US television industry will fall below the $20 billion mark starting this year, according to a report from BIA Advisory Services.
After six years with US TV revenue hovering between $20-22 billion, BIA expects 2009 to end at an even $17 billion in revenues, a 21.2% drop from 2007’s $21.5 billion.
BIA’s data found that several markets in 2008 showed surprising positive revenue streams due to fierce Presidential and Congressional campaigns in battleground states. This enabled only a 6.6% decline by the end of the year.
Mark Fratrik, vice president of BIA Advisory Services, said: “Since 2003 TV revenues have held steady but are now beginning a dramatic downward shift. This corroborates our calls for transformation as the only path to expansion for the industry.
“This will come from cross-platform growth and real energies put into finding local advertising revenues available through mobile and online advertising.”
Analysts at BIA forecast a slight positive revenue increase in 2010 of 0.6%, attributed to an election year and a recovering economy. Preliminary forecasting expects a dip into the negatives again in 2011 before a solid return to positive revenue streams in 2012.
In March, Screen Digest forecast that UK TV advertising revenue would drop by 7.7% in 2009. Amplified by audience fragmentation, analogue terrestrial TV will be hit hardest, it said, with both ITV1 and Channel 4 forecast to be down 10% in 2009. (see UK ad revenue to drop 8% in 2009).
A recent report from Ball State University, meanwhile, found that despite the proliferation of computers, video-capable mobile phones and similar devices, TV in the home still commands the greatest amount of viewing in the US, even among those aged 18-24 (see Home TV viewing still popular in the US).
