A few weeks ago Myers published a worse case scenario set of advertising forecasts for 2001, predicting a 6.6% decline. This outlook now looks very probably, with even further downgrades possible if the US remains in the current ‘war time economy’.
The ‘most likely’ growth figures forecasts from Myers now stand as below. Less pessimistic forecasts of only a few weeks earlier predicted a total decline in adspend of 2.3% for 2001 and 0.2% for 2002 (see Forecasts).
| Total US media growth – 2001-2002 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
2001 |
2002 |
| |
% Growth |
$ (million) |
% Share |
% Growth |
$ (million) |
% Share |
| Newspapers |
-2.0 |
47,432 |
24.8 |
-5.0 |
45,060 |
25.4 |
| Broadcast networks |
-6.0 |
15,950 |
8.3 |
-9.0 |
14,515 |
8.2 |
| National spot TV |
-20.0 |
9,811 |
5.1 |
-9.0 |
8,928 |
5.0 |
| Broadcast syndication |
-16.0 |
2,628 |
1.4 |
-12.0 |
2,312 |
1.3 |
| Local broadcast TV |
-10.0 |
12,188 |
6.4 |
-10.0 |
10,969 |
6.2 |
| Radio |
-8.0 |
17,561 |
9.2 |
-5.0 |
16,683 |
9.4 |
| Yellow pages |
-4.0 |
12,204 |
6.4 |
-2.0 |
11,960 |
6.7 |
| Magazines |
-4.5 |
17,032 |
8.9 |
-8.0 |
15,669 |
8.8 |
| Network cable TV |
-2.0 |
9,569 |
5.0 |
-8.0 |
8,803 |
5.0 |
| Local/regional cable TV |
10.0 |
4,019 |
2.1 |
5.0 |
4,220 |
2.4 |
| Online |
10.0 |
4,730 |
2.5 |
12.0 |
5,298 |
3.0 |
| Outdoor |
-1.0 |
2,131 |
1.1 |
-3.0 |
2,067 |
1.2 |
| Other |
-12.0 |
36,263 |
18.9 |
-15.0 |
30,824 |
17.4 |
| TOTAL |
-6.6 |
191,518 |
100 |
-7.4 |
177,309 |
100 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Source: Myers Mediaenomics, 09/01 |
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|
|
|
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“Companies that are providers of information – both content and distribution – stand to be strengthened during this period,” says Myers. “The major corporations that are the backbone of this nation’s communications infrastructure will gain new regulatory freedom to preserve and protect their systems. Cable television operators will be given greater freedom to consolidate.”
Broadcasters are the most negatively impacted as they are totally dependent on advertising, says Myers. Given that the ad market was already in decline, the value of lost revenues during this period is ‘staggering’. In line with this outlook, UK ITV companies Carlton and Granada were yesterday both downgraded by brokers.
